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The Case for Bitcoin at $60,000

The CBOE (Dec 10) and CME (Dec 18) futures markets will be commencing trading next week. Less than 12 hours before the CBOE launch, Bitcoin breaks out of the corrective phase and is preparing to shoot up.

Some articles about the potential outcomes of the futures market introduction:

Scenario summary

  • Because it will be very hard to hedge a short futures position (low liquidity and unregulated underlying), most shorts will have to be content with being naked.
  • Naked shorts will have around 30% stop loss points so at $15,000 they would cover at $19,500. Once these speculative shorts cover, a positive feedback loop would kick in with the underlying following futures and vice versa.
  • Accessibility for bigger funds would drive more big money into it.
  • Penetration rate are still low, around 2.5% average.  There are only about 21 addresses generated so far. Meaning not more than 21 million people have bitcoins.
    • There are about
      • 1.5 trillion people with wealth of more than $10,000. If the 1.5 trillion each put $10 each, it would add $10.5 trillion to the market cap.
      • 29 million people with more than $1,000,000. If each of these people would put 1% of their $1m wealth, that would easily add $290B to Bitcoin’s current $258B market cap. Easily doubling it to $30,000.
      • At $11 trillion and 16,000,000 coins, we arrive at $687,500 per coin.
      • As adoption grows, mass number of coins would flow to smaller and smaller wallets.
      • Top 100 Richest Bitcoin Addresses and Bitcoin distribution.png

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Weekly bars haven’t gone parabolic. Nor have the total crypto market cap as preceded by November 2013.

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