March 27, 2008

Net: $108
LFT: 0
DD: $4
Trades: 50
Shares: 5000
Frame of Mind: Same as yesterday’s, careful and risk averse.

Started shorting CAG at 23.28,  added another 100 shares at 23.24, because the range was broken. Took half at 23.11 since I thought the gap wouldn’t be filled since it was too huge. From 23.08 low it squeezed up to 23.40. I took my remaining shares at breakeven.

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Saw nice S/Rs on COP and XLE, they were at the highs touching the pivots then decided to play them.

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I first noticed that XLE might be forming an ascending triangle, I then looked at COP, which was the closest ascending triangle oil stock I could find. Started going long around 76.80, to cut .20 below, pretty good support I thought since there was some consolidation around .60-.70 earlier.

And so it went up, sold my long, then sold short, assuming the scenario that it would fall back to form the  triangle. I knew the triangle was fucked when XLE started breaking the recent lows, ahead of COP. From there I had no idea where to pick bottom so I didn’t do that. I shorted the 2nd bounce up, thinking there would be some resistance up there after falling that hard, my target was at .00. That was another good call, however the stock dropped only to .20 and formed a bullish doji.

After seeing the doji I was leaning towards the bullish side now, and also the XLE had support at that area and seemed to have found support. that was a good call.

March 26, 2008

 Net: $131
LFT: $0
DD: $30
Trades: 91
Shares: 9400
Frame of Mind: Willing to lose $50 max, knowing I can make more than $200 if I get to ride the big one. Focus was on next month’s MPP. However I was trading less carefully than Monday.

Today’s trades were a combination of trend following and range trading.

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Shorted C at 22.60 with the premise that it wouldn’t retest 22.80 due to negative news about quadrupling their loss estimates, true enough it didn’t retest the high, however I have sold my position very early at 22.20. It tested new lows but it went t the high 22.30s before making a sharp downturn during the final hours.

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Started going long JPM after seeing what seemed to be a 5min reversal doji around 12:45, however I was wrong. I thought that JPM was strong since XLF was already at a double bottom. The XLF fell a little bit and then JPM fell a lot. At the 2:00pm lows I was getting my timer due to LFT limit after coming down from +$50 and I had 400 shares, I couldn’t do anything anymore but just wait. I set my target around 44.40, which was the middle of the range. At 44.40 I have sold all my shares and was up $100, which was earlier than planned but I figured I should close my positions for the sake of booking it. In a few minutes I saw the stock flew 40 more pennies to my regret and dismay.

March 25, 2008

Net: -$53
Frame of Mind: Broke yesterday’s losing streak. Not as patient in waiting for trades.

Played BSC’s descending triangle, shorted at 10.61, target of 10.40, unfortunately the lowest was 10.51 then it pulled back from there to 10.80

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March 24, 2008

Net: $104
LFT: $6
Trades: 52
Shares: 5200
Frame of Mind: Focusing on just making $50 to up my MPP for next month. Fully accepted the possibility of losing $50.

Had dinner with Berns and came in late around lunch. Kicked off with C, two trades were losers. Spotted a possible reversal on CFC, after holding it for more than an hour, it was still consolidating.

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Saw both descending triangles on JPM and the XLF, kept on shorting JPM but it also kept on shaking me out, my average price on it was 46.70, went to as low as 46.35 only. My initial target on it was 46.10. XLF fell more whilst JPM was holding at around 46.35.

Made $50 on JPM’s trend and another $50 with the range from the last 2 hours, mostly long positions.

March 18, 2008

Net: -$50
LFT: $102

Been trading small for this week leading up to the Fed, had a string of bad luck, bad trades, and bad losses last week. The old strat wasn’t worth shit anymore.  So far I’m trading without a system, just discretionary scalping and some trend following.

FED day wasn’t very eventful, market dropped a bit on the announcement, shook out the shorts with a high bounce, then continued down harder. Market then got supported a few levels down then started trending up.

I underestimated the trend up and that’s what killed me today.

What went right:

Shorted the low following the reversal candle of AA. What a pity I took it at 39.05. it went to as low as 37.60 bounced to around 38.40.

Another trade that reinforces me to SIT on my profits longer.

What went wrong:

Shorted BA at the start of the 5EMA21, which was very near 15EMA21. My first average was way after 15EMA21 and even then I couldn’t get a decent pullback to my average price. Looks like the EMA Fading system is gonna have to go…

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March 14, 2008

Net: -$88

Tried to fade XOM on the way down as XLE came to touch PP, alas I went long too early and I was getting stopped out by the time the market tried to hold it up.

CNBC was showing the news  about BSC’s liquidity problem when futures was tanking to PP, then the 2nd wave came which pushed thru all the PP’s on ES, XLF, and XLE. Everything plummeted as BSC fell from $50 to $27 in minutes.

GE plunged almost a dollar then eventually pulled back to pre-breakdown prices.

GE

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XOM

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ESM8

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BSC

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