Peso Dollar Forecasts for 2011

Although I have stayed away from trading for the past few years, I constantly find myself having to decide what the right time is to buy or sell USD.

Here’s what the banks have to say about the Peso Dollar situation for this year.

2/11/2011 – BSP revises forecast of peso range from Php47-Php45 to Php45-Php42.

2/16/2011 – HSBC sees USD PHP down to Php37.50 4Q 2011.

2/24/2011 – Standard Chartered’s Callum Henderson signals a Buy for USD-PHP.

3/13/2011 – Barclay’s year-end forecast for Philippine peso at $41. 50.

It seems everybody except Callum Henderson is rooting for the peso to appreciate, the most conservative being the BSP. Why is their forecast conservative?

A local HSBC added that the forecast was aggresive and a more realistic projection is Php41 by end of the year. So, your managing director’s projection is unrealistic huh.


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