If the trend is intact, the future of the Peso is bleak.
The following site says:
What we have here is a chart showing the historical exchange rate of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar from 1950 to 2009. (Data from 1950 to 1997 from Penn World Tables; Data from 1997 onwards from Oanda, using exchange rates on January 1 of each year)
It’s just really weird that I haven’t seen a graph like this available anywhere else on the internet, because there’s so much that can be learned from it. Look at how all the significant movements in the graph can be traced to events in Philippine history (which is, looking back at it, composed almost entirely of bad news):
- 1961: President Diosdado Macapagal allows the peso to float on the free currency exchange market, unpegging it from the US dollar to stimulate economic development. Its value sinks from P2 to P3.7 to the dollar.
- 1970: I can only assume this is due to the First Quarter Storm, where a series of heavy demonstrations and protests and marches take their toll on the country. The value of the peso slips from P4 to P6 to the dollar.
- 1983: Ninoy Aquino assassinated, and Marcos’ shit hits the fan. The country rapidly deteriorates, culminating in the EDSA Revolution. Value of the peso dives from P8 to 20 to the dollar over a few years.
- 1989: A series of ugly coup attempts threatens the Aquino administration, including a bloodbath in January 1989. Peso descends from P21 to P27 to the dollar over two years.
- 1997: The Asian Financial Crisis occurs, and I can’t understand it no matter how many times I check Wikipedia, but the peso crashes from P26 to P41 to the dollar in a single frickin’ year.
- 2000: Economic mismanagement and political instability during the Estrada administration, plus charges or corruption leading to an impeachment trial. Peso nosedives from P40 to P50 to the dollar.
And finally there’s 2005 to the present, the only time in history that the Philippine peso has significantly strengthened in value, albeit with a sharp rebound in 2008. I’m at a loss to attribute this to any single event, but history has shown that movements of that scale do not happen without a reason.
Note the similar patterns of the moving averages from 1994 to 1997 and 2015 to 2018
Blue – West Texas Oil (Inverse)
Red – USDPHP
Orange – DXY
All charts not scaled.
SPY just range for 0.40 until lunch when it broke out. Note reaction of price to resistance. At the 4th test, price ranged instead of flushing down.
$MU short below M1 MA VWAP congestion, cover at M5 20MA. Short again on retest of break. Hold for the trend. Cover at 50% retracement of bullish signal 61.36
Got chopped up in SPY. Too many trades. Wasn’t patient enough for a setup.
$FB broke out without warning, the only entry signal was a high volume bar on the M5. Paid 1:3 with a target clearly around 192.60.